For the first time in San Francisco's post Barry Bonds era, they have a chance to play in October.
I picked them to finish third in the Division, ahead of San Diego and Colorado, and behind Los Angeles and Arizona. If we switched Colorado and Arizona, this prediction might yet well hold true in September.
Unless....The Giants move to improve their offense.
As I discussed in March and April, the Giants pitching is excellent. Lincecum and Cain have been deadly, Zito has been much better (1.38 whip) than his 5-10 record would indicate, and Jonathan Sanchez has shown flashes of brilliance.
The bullpen has been a solid if unheralded crew, led by Jeremy Affeldt, Brian Wilson, and Justin Miller.
The staff leads the majors in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, and strikeouts per nine innings.
BUT Lincecum, Cain, and the bullpen will fall back to earth. They have been too spectacular to keep their current pace up.
Ryan Sadowski will not continue to be heaven sent.
Randy Johnson will need to come back from the DL ready to pitch. Jonathan Sanchez will need to find some consistency. Barry Zito will need to start winning ballgames. They also need to continue to get quality bullpen work.
But how does this 50-41 team, fighting desperately for the wild card, get to the playoffs?
By scrapping at least two of the lineup regulars that they currently employ.
Brian Sabean doesn't have to do much math, and he doesn't have to look very hard.
He is getting only quality lineup production from Aaron Rowand and Pablo Sandoval. Thus, he has six other lineup spots where he could, somewhat easily, make a trade to improve.
Sabean could, yes, improve his lineup at both outfield corners, and every infield spot save third-base and give his team the boost of offense it needs to see October.
In a short series, the Lincecum-Cain-Johnson trio would be one of the most feared...but they won't get the chance if they can't start scoring runs now.
So far, the Giants are last in the Majors in on-base percentage and walks, and near the bottom in runs scored, OPS, and extra-base hits.
San Fran's catcher, Bengie Molina, has walked five times all season.
First-bagger Travis Ishikawa is hitting just .263/.316/.419, helping to make SF First-basemen 23rd in OPS (On-base plus slugging percentage) and 29th in extra base hits.
Snagging Nick Johnson (.305/.416/.424 in 321 at-bats) would give the Giants an actual hitter for the position where your best hitter should be.
Cleveland's C/1B Victor Martinez (.286/.365/.486) would upgrade either position.
Lyle Overbay of the Jays or Aubrey Huff of the O's would help the lineup.
Scrapping the appalling Edgar Renteria in favor of a shortstop who could get on base OR play defense OR hit for power, like Oakland's Orlando Cabrera, Washington's Christian Guzman, and Cleveland's Johnny Peralta, respectively, would eliminate another lineup hole.
And finally, acquiring a corner outfielder that hits like a corner outfielder, and not like, say, Fred Lewis, Randy Winn, or any of the quartet of men they have run out there this season, would provide the Giants the power needed to avoid finishing 29th in the Majors in home-runs.
Potential acquisitions? Try Matt Holliday of the A's or Jermaine Dye of the White Sox (depending on if they become buyers or sellers).
Two final points to wrap up.
First. The Giants do need to make sure that they don't sacrifice the key cogs of their future, namely future Ace Madison Bumgarner and his Matt Cain, Tim Alderson. The Giant's #1 pick in 2008, and the 5th overall, Catcher Buster Posey, just skipped AA after dominating the California League, and is poised to take over for the horrendous Molina next spring.
Prospects like these must not be touched. The Giants have depth, and that is what they must deal from.
They must protect their top youngsters, which is what rebuilding teams will covet. Do not pull the trigger on a Lincecum for Alexis Rios-like deal.
And finally, although it would be easy to sit pat, to rely on the 'chemistry' justification, they must in fact do something to improve their squad. 4.1 runs per game, a half run below the major league average, is not going to cut it.
Second...Colorado has gone crazy since Jim Tracy took over, and is poised for a wild card run. They lie just a half game back of SF.
Luckily, they might not have the pitching to hold up down the stretch, but their offense and defense is above average, and their rotation is respectable. A trade for one or two bullpen and/or rotation arms could give them the edge.
Chicago, Milwaukee, and St. Louis all have problems. One will win the division, my guess being the Cardinals, while the other two will battle for the Wild Card. St. Louis has made moves to upgrade where they needed help, and their rotation is excellent. They also have that one hitter, gosh-darn, I forget his name.
The Cubs have stumbled badly, and need their offense to pick up to respectability if they want a shot at the wild card.
They do, however, have Aramis Ramirez returning from an injury, and it makes statistical sense that last year's Rookie of the Year Geovany Soto, who hit .285/.364/.504 with 23 homers will improve on his current .230/.336/.396 'performance.'
The Brewers lack the rotation to compete down the stretch, unless GM Doug Melvin makes another Sabathia-sized deal.
In the east, the Braves and Marlins are hoping to make a run, though, again, both offenses remain ineffective.
So...to conclude, finally, Colorado is the biggest threat, with Chicago, Atlanta, and company also threatening.
To protect their precarious playoff berth, GM Brian Sabean must be creative and thrifty, while also making a significant acquisition to ensure his team reaches October.
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